Thursday, October 01, 2009

Lifting Iran’s Nuclear Veil-nytimes Iran Watch

Lifting Iran’s Nuclear Veil

By Gary Milhollin and Valerie Lincy

The New York Times
September 30, 2009

Washington--The disclosure of Iran’s secret nuclear plant has changed the way the West must negotiate with Tehran. While worrisome enough on its own, the plant at Qum may well be the first peek at something far worse: a planned, or even partly completed, hidden nuclear archipelago stretching across the country.

The Qum plant doesn’t make much sense as a stand-alone bomb factory. As described by American officials, the plant would house 3,000 centrifuges, able to enrich enough uranium for one or two bombs per year. Yet at their present rate of production, 3,000 of Iran’s existing IR-1 centrifuges would take two years to fuel a single bomb and 10 years for five weapons. This is too long a time frame for the American assessment to be feasible. To build one or two bombs a year, Iran would have to quadruple the centrifuges’ present production rate. (While this feat is theoretically within the centrifuges’ design limits, it is not one Iran has shown it can achieve.)

Perhaps Iran was planning to install more efficient centrifuges at the plant, like a version of the P-2 machine used by Pakistan. These could fuel a five-bomb arsenal in just over a year. But while we know Iran has tested such machines, there is no evidence that it can make them in bulk.

Regardless of the machines used, it would take a couple of years at the front end to get them installed. Iran would be looking at three to five years of high activity at the site, during which the risk of discovery would skyrocket.

Clearly, the new plant makes more sense if it is one of many. If Iran built a second plant of the same size as the Qum operation and ran them in tandem, the production times described above could be almost halved. And if Iran had a string of such plants, it would be able to fuel a small arsenal quickly enough to reduce greatly the chance of getting caught. This would also limit the damage if one site were discovered or bombed, because its loss might not affect the others. Such a secret string of plants, however, would probably require a secret source of uranium. Intelligence agencies have been looking for such a source; the Qum discovery should be a signal to increase their efforts.

The Qum plant might also be linked to Iran’s known enrichment plant at Natanz, which is under inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Natanz has a stockpile of uranium that is already enriched partway to weapon-grade. By feeding this uranium into the new Qum plant, Iran could fuel one bomb in about seven months, even at the present low production rate. If the rate were quadrupled, as Washington is projecting, the plant could fuel a five-bomb arsenal in less than a year.

But because the Natanz plant is being watched over by international inspectors, diversion of its material would probably be detected. The question is whether Iran might chance it, deciding that its production rate was high enough to give it a nuclear deterrent before other countries could organize a response to the diversion.

Having begun the Qum plant to supply a bomb’s fuel, wouldn’t Iran also create what’s needed to produce the rest of the bomb’s components? This means laboratories to perfect nuclear weapon detonation and workshops to produce the firing sets, high-explosive lenses and other necessary parts. Although there is plenty of suspicion that such sites exist, Iran has not admitted having them.

All must be found. When talks begin in Geneva tomorrow, there should be little concern with the formerly dominant question of suspending enrichment at Natanz. Rather, Iran must be made to produce a complete map of its nuclear sites, together with a history of how each was created and provisioned.

This means getting access to scientists, records, equipment and sites. It is a lot to ask, and we may not have the leverage to get it. But anything less will provide no protection against what we now know is Iran’s determination to build the bomb.

Gary Milhollin directs the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. Valerie Lincy is the editor of Iranwatch.org.


Saturday, March 28, 2009

Israel: Iran is only months away from building a nuke, has ballistic warhead capability

Israel: Iran is only months away from building a nuke, has ballistic warhead capability :from Debka.com

25 Mar.: Israel's AMAN military intelligence director, Maj. Amos Yadlin informed the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee Wednesday, March 25, that Iran is only months away from a capacity to make a nuclear bomb and has attained a warhead capability. Yet Tehran has decided not to cross the threshold for two compelling reasons, outlined by DEBKAfile's military sources:

1. They are waiting to stockpile an arsenal of 10 to 12 bombs and warheads for which they are short of enough enriched uranium.

2. Undeterred by fear of an American or European attack, Iran's leaders are waiting to see what rewards US president Barack Obama has to offer them for improving Washington-Tehran relations. If the American incentives fall short, Tehran will then push forward with its nuclear weapon.

In his briefing, Yadlin avoided pointing out that Obama's projected rewards would be at the expense of Israel's strategic standing or even its military might. This has prompted the sharply conflicting US and Israel intelligence evaluations of the point at which Iran's nuclear bomb program stands now.

While the AMAN chief says the capability is there but not yet fulfilled, the Americans speak of a timeline of 1-5 years or more.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Egypt women blog for their rights - Dalia

http://daliaziada.blogspot.com
Egypt women blog for their rights

From the BBC Arabic Service

Young Egyptian women are using blogs and online radio stations to beat the censors and to fight for equality.

Despite making up only 24% of the workforce in Egypt, 30% of women use the internet.

But it is the middle and upper classes that have really taken to the internet as an alternative way to discuss topics and exchange information and air what many conservatives would consider to be radical views.

Often exploiting the anonymity afforded by the internet they tell personal stories, share political and cultural views, post favourite pictures, and talk about their daily frustrations.

What can I do?

Egyptian blogger Dalia Ziada called on Saudi Arabia to end what she considers discrimination against young Muslim women, in a campaign timed to coincide with the Prophet Muhammad's birthday.

"I am not allowed to do Omra [a lesser pilgrimage to Mecca]! Why? Because I am a young woman under the age of 45! The only solution for me to get to my beloved Prophet's land is to be accompanied by a male chaperone. My mother is not enough!!" says Dalia.

My blog is a way to remind myself that I am not alone
Anonymous blogger

"Do you know what a male chaperone is? A first-degree male relative: father, brother, husband, or son! I am in a big trouble, then.

"My father is dead, my two brothers are not interested and I cannot afford to pay for their tickets. I do not have a husband and of course I do not have a son! What can I do, now?" she says.

Obsession with virginity

Another blogger who wanted to remain anonymous, writes about her past as a drug addict and has criticised what she calls Arab society's "continuing obsession with female virginity.

"My blog is a way to remind myself that I am not alone, Even if no one reads it, I would still keep writing," she says.

Another significant way in which the blogosphere is being used to change Egyptian society is that it is one of the few public spaces in Egypt where men and women are represented more-or-less equally.

It makes collaboration on social issues possible between men and women.

Subjects that are taboo on the street can be discussed online.

They discuss issues such as sexual harassment, which is often pigeon-holed in Egypt as a "woman's problem".

Radical radio

Egyptian women are also putting themselves on the map of audio blogging, which is a cheap and censorship-free growing web trend.


If you are always at risk of being sexually harassed, what kind of life is this?

Amani Tunsi

Banat wa Bas or "Girls only" is the first online Arabic radio station entirely run by women and which addresses their issues. It is one of a growing list of online stations that have sprung up in Egypt including Horytna (Our Freedom) and Teet (an Arabic reference to the censor's "beep").

Banat wa Bas was started by a 25-year-old computer science graduate, Amani Tunsi, who was frustrated with how women are treated in Egyptian society.

"We are almost not living. If you are always at risk of being sexually harassed everywhere, What kind of life is this? " she asks.

Banat wa Bas currently offers listeners a variety of shows, including Mosh Kol al-Teir, which is an Egyptian proverb ("Not all the Birds") to say not all girls are easy to fool. The show revolves around the tricks used by Egyptian men to pick up women.

Banat wa Bas is not afraid to let its contributors express opinions about what is in the news, and they can get away with it because using the internet means they can steer clear of government censorship.